[Notes] - Pima: On Continue Capital's Cross-cycle Long Term Strategy
[51% with Mable Jiang] - EP.26
Part I: English Version
Part II: Chinese Version
Part I
Time: 2021.5.20
Interviewer: Mable Jiang (Multicoin Capital), Pima (Continue Capital)
Investment style?
In the past, when the capital was small, 1/3 or even half of the positions were used to invest in some projects.
Offense (√) & Defense (×):
Traditional capital market: 10 stocks of public funds, each accounted for no more than 10%, the Sharpe rate is strictly controlled, and the focus is on defense.
Crypto market: Opportunity does not lie in defense, it needs to concentrate funds in the early stage. It is very difficult to make money in a bear market, and the magnitude of the jump is minimal.
The benchmarking sentiment is very serious. Taking animal currency as an example, I believe that holding positions can grow into the next bitcoin for 3-5 years. Such a benchmarking logic is inappropriate.
Many of the funds that came out of this round are good at asset selection, not all of which are big-cap dividends. How to judge whether a project is expensive or not?
Take the market (Bitcoin) as the coordinate: At different stages, the heat, attention, and amount of funds coming in the market are completely different at different stages.
Head effect: After the top companies eat up the market, the value of the back may be zero. Now it is possible that due to the growth bonus and the number of retail investors, the emotions are easily mobilized. Therefore, there will be a lot of waist and tail items, and there will be a benchmarking emotion. But for example, with Chainlink's dominance on the oracle track, we will hardly look at new opportunities on the oracle track, and it is difficult for new projects to get the market.
Market space: Taking traditional industries as an example, first look at the market space ceiling from the scale of the people served. If it can serve the world's 1 billion people, it can be made into a volume like Facebook, Apple, and Alibaba; if it only covers 10 million people, it will not be possible to give the project such a large industry growth space.
Rely on growth to cover the valuation, rather than simply relying on low cost.
What is the investment logic of Dfinity?
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, and Dfinity belong to the role of sectarianism.
It is in line with our expectation for the next wave of industry prosperity: what kind of phenomenon should the next wave of industry prosperity present to us? In the past, the direction of technological deduction was monopolized by transactions and smart contracts, but web3 may face many Internet problems. Can using Crypto products be as smooth as using Internet products? This is our expectation for the next round of Dfinity, but this round of ecology may not be affordable, and a lot of common infrastructure needs to be built.
Now it is necessary to reconstruct the industry structure from the basic principles to make a completely subversive product.
I have always believed that the projects and products we invest in can fall in market value, but cannot fall in rankings. The project ranking represents your position and competitiveness in the entire industry. The decline in market value may be related to the cyclical sentiment of the entire market, the Fed and other macroeconomic impacts, but if the project has fallen in the rankings, you should really reflect on it, or it is at odds with the development of the entire era, or The competitiveness of your industry is deteriorating, which I think is not particularly tolerable.
Do you think the scale effect is the most important?
is important. For example, if the major urban commercial banks do not cover the population, there are opportunities for the rise of some new projects if they do not cover the scope.
If the new project can serve the vast number of people not covered in the past, and at the same time achieve great product optimization and service innovation to meet the needs of these people, then the new project can rely on the scale effect to take a share of the industry.
Uni and Sushi are in sharp contrast in terms of operations. The Sushi team is the most efficient in decentralized operations; everyone in Uni has a clear ownership and understands what they are responsible for, so they push things quickly.
How to see the development of DEX?
Judgment of DEX's core indicators: TVL, transaction volume, DAU. At the root of each DEX is a high-quality project.
From MetaMask's five or six million downloads and the number of addresses interacting with Ethereum, it can be seen that there are still relatively few players entering DeFi, and DEX still has a lot of room for growth.
DEX is the jewel in the DeFi crown, but the competition is slowly solidifying.
Part II
时间：2021.5.20
访谈人：Mable Jiang（Multicoin Capital）, Pima（Continue Capital）
投资风格？
以前资金体量小的时候常用1/3甚至一半的仓位投一些项目。
进攻(√) & 防守(×)：
传统资本市场：公募基金10支股票，每支占比不超过10%，严格控制夏普率，重点在防守。
Crypto 市场：机会不在于防守，早期需要集中资金。在熊市赚钱是非常难的，数量级的跃升微乎其微。
对标情绪很严重，以动物币为例，认为持仓3-5年能成长为下一个bitcoin，这样的对标逻辑是不恰当的。
这一轮跑出来的基金很多是善于资产选择的，不全然是大盘红利。怎么判断一个项目贵不贵？
以大盘（Bitcoin）为坐标：在不同阶段，整个市场的热度、关注度、市场进来的资金体量是完全不一样的。
头部效应：头部的几家把市场吃掉之后，后面的价值可能就归0了。现在可能由于成长红利还在，散户还比较多，情绪容易被调动起来，因此腰部尾部项目会非常多，存在对标情绪。但是比如以Chainlink在预言机赛道的统治力，我们在预言机赛道几乎不会去看新的机会了，新项目很难拿到市场。
市场空间：以传统行业为例，从服务的人群规模先看市场空间天花板。如果能服务全球 10 亿人口，那么可以做成 Facebook、苹果、阿里巴巴这种体量；如果只覆盖 1000 万人口，那不可能给到项目那么大的行业的成长空间。
要靠成长去cover掉估值，而不是单纯靠成本低。
Dfinity的投资逻辑是怎样的？
Bitcoin、Ethereum、Filecoin、Dfinity属于开宗立派的角色。
符合我们对下一波行业繁荣的一个期待：下一波的行业繁荣，应该是以什么样的现象呈现给我们？过去技术推演的方向被交易和智能合约垄断，但web3可能会面对非常多互联网方面的问题。使用Crypto产品是否能像使用互联网产品一样丝滑？这是我们对Dfinity下一轮的期待，但是这一轮生态不一定起得来，还需要搭建很多通用的基础设施。
现在是需要从基本原理上去重构行业结构才能做出完全颠覆式的产品。
我一直坚信，我们投的项目、投的产品可以跌市值，但是不能跌排名。项目排名代表了你在整个行业的地位与竞争力。跌市值可能跟整个市场的周期情绪、美联储等等宏观经济的影响有关，但如果说项目跌了排名，你真的是应该好好的去做反思，要么跟整个时代的发展有相左之处，要么你的行业竞争力在退化，这个是我觉得不是特别能忍受的。
你认为规模效应是最重要的吗？
是重要的。举例来说，主要的城市商行没有覆盖到的人群，没有覆盖到的范围，就存在一些新项目崛起的机会。
新项目如果说能把广大的过去没有覆盖到的人群服务好，同时做到极大的产品优化、服务创新，满足这些人的需求，那么新项目就能依靠规模效应在行业里分一杯羹。
Uni与Sushi在运营方面形成了鲜明的对比，Sushi团队在去中心化运营里面是效率最高的；Uni里面每个人有明确的ownership明白自己负责的是什么，所以推东西很快。
如何看DEX的发展？
DEX的核心指标的判断：TVL、交易额、DAU。每个DEX本源上争抢的是优质项目。
从MetaMask的五六百万的下载量、从跟以太坊交互的地址数等数据可以看出目前进入DeFi的玩家还是比较少的，DEX还有很大的成长空间。
DEX是DeFi皇冠上的明珠，但是竞争已经在慢慢固化。